Ron Paul Ain't Winning

Why Ron Paul isn't Relevant

       There are complaints from the Ron Paul camp that the media is ignoring their candidate. They're right. While he probably deserves to get more attention than people who would be creamed in the general election, such as Bachman, he still doesn't bring much to the table against Obama, he would probably have lost to Mondale in '72. Half of his views stand in one camp and half in the other. This does not make you universally liked, this makes you a lost cause. Anti-abortion rights, homophobia, lower taxes, withdrawal from the UN, and a tiny federal government play well with conservatives. An end to the cruel war on drugs and a reduction in military plays well with liberals. But absolute isolationism tends not play well with a large segment of liberals (including me) Intervening in war crimes and the like would be off the table. There are also accusations of racism, which makes nearly everyone uncomfortable, but I don't think there's much validity to these claims, though they could easily be played up by 527s.
       While economy is predicted to be the biggest player in 2012, it's still hard to tell if people will feel the same way in a year. If Obama will say why rather than just doing what's right, he can bring up his approval ratings significantly. He has turned out to be the opposite of his detractors accused him of; instead, he's all action without rhetoric.
       The Ames straw poll is a poor indicator of actually popularity. Romney might have done well to actually try in Ames, he would have placed much higher than, but he's probably playing the long game. The threshold for GOP enthusiasm is pretty high. You have to pay $25 and travel to about as close as you can get to the middle of Iowa. These voters are even more conservative than the run of the mill Republicans.
       Unless there's a radical shift back to the woefully politically illiterate (tea party), Romney is the only one with any chance in the general election. Though still woefully high, the tea party is losing support. As per Gallup, TP stands at 25% approval, of which 14% is strong support. Oddly 42% don't care either way. Disapproval is at 28%; 20% strongly disapprove. Even conservatives aren't strong supporters 47% support, 8% oppose, and 41% do neither. I think some of those "neithers" are afraid to drag down someone they dislike less than Democrats, though this is almost pure conjecture.

***Congress***

       Congress has long had very low approval ratings. Excluding the wake of 9/11, since the 70's congress almost always has more disapprovers than approvers. When they don't it's a small margin (again excluding 9/11.) But its current approval stands at 13%. Tied for an all time low. Also for the first time in CNN polling history (and almost surely US history), the majority of Americans don't want their own representative re-elected. There has long been a major discrepancy between people's view of congress and their own house member. Now, only one in four want most members re-elected.
       What does this have to do with Ron Paul? It's pretty simple; he's a congressman. Fair or not, he can easily be lumped in with all of congress. Yes, he often votes against the party. He votes against his party 31% of the time; among Republicans, only Walter Jones, of NC is higher on the list 33%.
Bachman is also a representative, but she has her own problems. For one, she can't seem to tell the truth, even more than most of the GOP. When she says anything about her opponents, the smart money is on lying. Plus she's fucking insane. She hates gay people to their very core. Which, fortunately, no longer matches up with most Americans.



       I’ll put up a chart of GOP enthusiasm and recognition of contenders using data from Gallup later today or tomorrow when I feel like doing a bunch of pretty simple line charts and maybe a scatter plot or two.